Population and its pattern

Growth Rate 
There has always been positive growth rate of population in India ever since first census of India was conducted. However, 1921 is an exception when the growth was negative.

Population Growth Since 1901

1. Period of Stagnant Population (1901-1921).
2. Period of Steady Growth (1921-1951).
3. Period of Rapid High Growth (1951-81).
4. Period of High Growth with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011).

1. Period of Stagnant Population (1901 1921):

• During most of the 19th century India witnessed sporadic, irregular and slow growth of population which drifted into twentieth century until 1921.
• Thus the population growth during this period can be termed more or less stagnant when compared to the growth rates observed during the consequent periods.
• The high birth rate was counterbalanced by high death rate.

Demographic divide:

• The census year 1921 registered a negative growth rate of -0.31 per cent which happened only once throughout the demographic history of India. It is because of this decline in place of rise in population that the year 1921 is called the 'demographic divide' in the demographic history of India.
• The high mortality during this period was the product of large scale abnormal deaths due to epidemics of influenza, plague, small pox, cholera, Food shortages  World War I etc.

Pattern:

• During the period 1901-1921, the northern zone suffered a net loss of 14 per cent of its population due to various famines and epidemics.
• In contrast the north-eastern zone registered a very high growth rate mainly due to large scale inmigration/immigration and to some extent lesser sufferings from famines and epidemics. Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland experienced very high population growth.
• Assam attracted large number of immigrants in its tea gardens.
• The southern zone experienced normal growth rate of 11.1 per cent because it did not suffer from famines and epidemics.
• However, Kerala was an exception which registered a sharp growth rate

2. Period of Steady Growth (1921-51):

• The period of steady growth (1921-1951) is known for its growth rate of 47.3%.
• General health and sanitation conditions improved during this period, leading to a downward trend in the mortality rate.
• The crude birth rate remained high and only declined to 40 per thousand in 1951 from 48 per thousand in 1921.
• The population growth during this period is called mortality-induced growth because of the considerable decline in the crude death rate and the high crude birth rate that remained.

Pattern-

• During this period, the northern, eastern and southern zones registered growth rates close to the national average.
• The central zone registered comparatively low growth rate due to higher rate of mortality and substantial out migration.
• The western zone experienced high growth r partly due to national growth and mainly due to immigration caused by industrial growth in Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Vadodara and Surat.

3. Period of Rapid High Growth (1951-81):

• The period of rapid high growth occurred between 1951-1981.
• During this time, there was a significant decrease in mortality rates but fertility rates remained high, leading to a population explosion.
• Developmental activities and improvements in health facilities contributed to this growth.
• Living conditions of the population also improved significantly.
• Birth rates declined slower than death rates, resulting in high natural increase.
• This growth was primarily driven by fertility.

Pattern-

• During this period, the northern zone experienced the high growth rate of 111 per cent whereas the southern zone, which had higher than the national average during 1901-21 and 1921-51 had the lowest growth rate during 1981

4. Period of High Growth Rate with Definite Signs of Slowing Down (1981-2011):

• The last phase of 20th century and the early phase of 21st century i.e., the period between census years 1981 and 2011 is known as the period of high growth with definite signs of slowing down.
• Although the rate of growth was still very high, it started declining after 1981.
• The highest ever growth rate of 2.48 per cent was recorded in 1971 which remained at a high of 2.46 in 1981 also. It declined to 2.38 per cent in 1991, 2.15 per cent in 2001 and further to 1.76 in 2011.

Pattern-

• The northern zone and the southern zone had the highest and lowest growth rates respectively.
• This declining trend is a positive indicator of the official efforts of birth control and people's own inclination to opt for smaller families.
• Although population growth rate in India continues to decline since the 1971 census year yet India's population growth rate is much higher as compared to that of China, U.S.A., Japan, Brazil, Indonesia, Bangladesh, etc.
• Russian Federation and some other European countries have recorded negative growth.

Demographic Transition:

Demographic transition is the process of change in population of a society. The term demographic transition was coined by Warren S. Thompson (1929) and later popularized by Frank W. Notestein (1945)

It consists of the following four stages:

(a) Stage 1. High death and birth rates, low growth rate.

(b) Stage 2. Rapid decline in death rate, continued high birth rate, very high growth rate.

(c) Stage 3. Rapid decline in birth rate, continued decline in death rate, growth rate begins to decline.

(d) Stage 4. Low death and birth rates, low growth rate,

• India also follows these stages of demographic transition
• During most of the nineteenth century India witnessed a fluctuating but ultimately more or less a stagnant growth of population, which drifted into the twentieth century until 1921.
• Thereafter, country passed through successively all the phases of demographic transition and is now widely believed to have entered the final phase which is normally characterized by rapidly declining fertility. I

Spatio-Temporal Variations in Population Growth:

• The average population growth rate of 17.64 per cent during 2001-11 does not give true picture as there are differences in the growth rate with reference to space and time. These are called spatio-temporal variations in population growth. There can be different reasons for differential growth-rate in different parts of India.
• The phenomenon of low growth has spread beyond the boundaries of the southern states during 2001 2011, where in addition to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka in the south, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab in the north, West Bengal and Odisha in the east and Maharashtra in the west have registered growth rate between 11 and 16 per cent in 2001-2011.
• Among the smaller states and union territories, Dadar and Nagar Haveli and Daman and Diu registered the highest
• In contrast, Lakshdweep, Andaman Nicobar Islands and Goa have registered low growth rate remaining in single digit only.

Minimum Growth rate:

• A glaring down trend in the growth has been observed in Nagaland, where there had been a steep fall in growth rate from 64.53 per cent in 1991-2001 to negative growth rate of -0.47 per cent.
• The second minimum growth of 4.86 per cent has been recorded by Kerala.

High Growth rate:

Among big states:

• Bihar (25.07%), Jammu & Kashmir (23.71%), Chhattisgarh (22.59%) and Jharkhand (22.34)

Among small states:

• Meghalaya (27.82%) and Arunachal Pradesh (25.92%).
• Fifteen states and union territories registered a decline of over five percentage points in decadal growth rate from the previous census decade. 
• These states and union territories are Jammu & Kashmir, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Maharashtra, Goa, Delhi, Chandigarh, Lakshadweep and Andaman and Nicobar Islands
• Delhi has registered the sharpest drop of 26 percentage points during 2001-2011, followed by Haryana (8.53), Rajasthan (6.97) and Maharashtra (6.74).

Population Growth in EAG and non-EAG States:

For a close analysis, the Indian states and union territories are divided into two broad groups namely Empowered Action Group (BAG) and non Empowered Action Group (non-EAG).

• The EAG (Empowered Action Group) consists of eight states in India.
• These states are Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Odisha.
• The EAG is a group of states identified by the Government of India for focused development efforts due to their high fertility rates, low per capita income, and other socio-economic indicators.
• The remaining states and union territories in India are included in the non-EAG category.
• During the period of two decades between 1951 and 1971, population of both EAG and non-EAG states and union territories increased which led to overall increase in population of India
• During this period, the population of non-EGA states grew at a faster rate as compared to that of EAG states.
• From 1971 onwards, the growth rate in non-EAG states and union territories declined continuously due to decline in fertility rate.
• During 1991-2001, the growth rate for BAG states remained same as that in the previous decade, whereas there was continuous reduction in the growth rate of non-EAG states and union territories. This was primarily responsible for bringing about a significant fall of about 2.3 per cent in the growth rate of the country as a whole.
• Between 2001 and 2011, the growth rate for the Empowered Action Group (EAG) states in India showed signs of slowing down, which was a first in the country's demographic history. This decline was around 4 percentage points. As a result, the growth rate for the entire country was brought down by 3.9 per cent due to a similar reduction in non-EAG states and union territories.
• In fact, census 2011 marks a milestone in the demographic history of the country, as it is perhaps for the first time, there is significant fall in the growth rate of population in the EAG states after decades of stagnation.

District Level Patterns:

Number of districts as per censuus 2011 is 640

Highest growth rate:

• It has been found that districts with high growth rates are distributed in almost all parts of the country.

Top Districts:

• Kurung Kumey in Arunachal Pradesh >Yanam in Puducherry > Gurgaon in Haryana > Daman >Dadra and Nagar Haveli

Low Growth date:

• In contrast, there are some Districts which registered Low growth rate-
• Majority of these districts are in Kerala and Tamil Nadu.
• It is worth noting that twelve districts including Mumbai, Kolkata and New Delhi had growth rates below five per cent.

Negative Growth rate:

• It is important to note that in 1991-2001, six out of ten districts recording highest growth rate in India were in Nagaland.
• This situation has completely been reversed as there was not even a single district in the whole of Nagaland with high growth rate in 2001-11.
• Longleng district of Nagaland recorded largest negative growth rate of -58.39% during 2001-11.

Growth of Child Population:

• The population of children aged 0-6 holds a unique significance in our demographic landscape. This particular group plays a crucial role in shaping the future trends of population growth as they approach reproductive age.
• According to 2011 census figures, the total number of children in the age-group 0-6 years in 158.8 million which is about 5 million less than the number recorded in 2001. Reduction in child population in the age group of 0-6 years is an indication of a fall in fertility rate which is a positive sign.

Highest:

• Uttar Pradesh > Bihar > Maharashtra > Madhya Pradesh >  Rajasthan

Lowest:

• Lakshadweep, Daman & Diu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Sikkim have least number of children.

Gender Wise:

• A comparison of figures of census 2011 with those of census 2001 reveals that the maximum decline in absolute numbers of children has been in Uttar Pradesh.
• As per gender composition of child population, it has been found that decline in females  has been much more as compared to decline in males during the decade 2001-2011.

Distribution of population:

The total population of India according to the 2011 census is 1210.2 millions

Largest:

• Uttar Pradesh is the state with the largest population in India, with 199.5 million people.
• Maharashtra comes in second with a population of 112.3 million, followed by Bihar with 103.8 million, West Bengal with 91.3 million, and Andhra Pradesh including Telangana with 84.6 million.
• These five states together make up about half of India's total population.
• Rajasthan is the largest state in terms of area, accounting for over 10.4% of the country's landmass. However, it has only 5.67% of the country's population.
• Sikkim has the smallest population among all the states in India.
• Delhi has the largest population among all the Union Territories, with 16.75 million people.

Smallest:

• Sikkim (690,251) is the smallest state and Lakshadweep (73,183) is the smallest union territory in India on the basis of population.

Density of population:

• Population density is a measure of the number of people per unit area.
• It is calculated by dividing the total population by the total area of a country or region.
• For instance, India's population density was 382 people per square kilometer based on the 2011 census.
• This figure is based on the total population of India (1.21 billion) and its total land area (3.17 million square kilometers), excluding the territory of Jammu and Kashmir that is under dispute with Pakistan and China.
• Population density is an important factor in analyzing the social and economic conditions of a country or region, as well as in making decisions about land use, infrastructure, and resource management.

Therefore, the density of population of India in 2011 is:

•  Total population (12101) divided by Total area (3.17) =382 persons per sq. Km
• India's population density of 382 persons per sq. km is much higher than China's 141 persons per sq. km.
• Among the most populous ten countries of theworld, India stands second in density; the first being Bangladesh (1141 persons per sq km).
• The density of population increased rapidly between 1951 and 2011.

State Level Patterns:

• The population density in Arunachal Pradesh is minimum at 17 persons per sq km, while Bihar has the maximum density of 1102 persons per sq km.
• Delhi, among the union territories, has the highest population density of 11,297 persons per sq km.
• The Andaman and Nicobar Islands have the lowest population density of only 46 persons per sq km.

1. Areas of Extremely Low Density:

• Areas having 100 persons per sq km and less than that are included in this class.
• They include Arunachal Pradesh >Andaman and Nicobar Islands >Mizoram >  and Sikkim

2. Areas of Low Density:

• This class includes areas with a population density of 101 to 250 persons per sq km.
• The following states fall into this category: Nagaland (119), Manipur (122), Himachal Pradesh (123), Jammu and Kashmir (124), Meghalaya (132), Chhattisgarh (189), Uttarakhand (189), Rajasthan (201), and Madhya Pradesh (236).
• Leh (Ladakh) and Kargil have large stretches with a population density of less than ten persons per sq km.
• Kargil has a population density of 10 persons/sq km while Leh (Ladakh) has a population density of only 3 persons per sq km.

3. Areas of Moderate Density:

• This class includes those areas which are having 251 to 500 persoos per sq km.
• It includes- Odisha , Gujarat , Andhra Pradesh,Telangana  Karnataka , Tripura , Maharashtra , Goa , Assam , and Jharkhand (414)

4. Areas of High Density:

• These are areas having population density of 501 to 1000 per sq km.
• It includes-Punjab , Tamil Nadu , Haryana ,Dadra & Nagar Haveli , Uttar Pradesh  and Kerala

5. Areas of Very High Density:

• The term "areas of very high population density" refers to regions with more than 1000 individuals per square kilometer.
• In India, several regions are classified as areas of very high population density.
• West Bengal has a population density of 1029 individuals per square kilometer.
• Bihar has a population density of 1102 individuals per square kilometer.
• Lakshadweep has a population density of 2013 individuals per square kilometer.
• Daman & Diu has a population density of 2169 individuals per square kilometer.
• Puducherry has a population density of 2548 individuals per square kilometer.
• Chandigarh has a population density of 9252 individuals per square kilometer.
• Delhi has the highest population density of all, with 11,297 individuals per square kilometer.

District Level Patterns:

• Some states with low density of population have very high density districts. The vice versa is also true. The range in district level densities is very wide.
• The highest density of 37,346 persons per sq km is in Northeast Delhi district and lowest is only one person per sq km in Dibang valley of Arunachal Pradesh.
• The belt comprising districts with densities above the national density of 382 persons per sq km starts from the plains of Punjab, runs through the Ganga Yamuna plains, the middle and lower reaches and delta of the Ganga system, winds through the eastern coast to Kanniyakumari traversing the deltas of Mahanadi, the Godavari,
• the Krishna, the Kaveri and other rivers and finally turns north along the western coastal districts, especially in Kerala.
• In contrast, districts in north-east, especially those in Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, and Mizoram; and a few from Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Uttarakhand; and arid districts of Rajasthan have recorded very low densities.

National Socio-Demographic Goals for 2010:

1. Address the unmet needs for basic reproductive and child health services, supplies and infrastructure.
2. Make school education upto age 14 free and compulsory, and reduce dropouts at primary and secondary school levels to below 20 per cent for both boys and girls.
3. Reduce infant mortality rate to below 30 per 1000 live births.
4. Reduce maternal mortality rate to below 100 per 100,000 live births.
5. Achieve universal immunisation of children against all vaccine preventable diseases.
6. Promote delayed marriage for girls, not earlier than age 18 and preferably after 20 years of age.
7. Achieve 80 per cent institutional deliveries and 100 per cent deliveries by trained persons.
8. Achieve universal access to information/ counselling, and services for fertility regulation and contraception with a wide basket of choices.
9. Achieve 100 per cent registration of births, deaths, marriage and pregnancy.
10. Contain the spread of Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), and promote greater integration between the management of reproductive tract infections (RTI) and sexually transmitted infections (STI) and the National AIDS Control Organisation.
11. Prevent and control communicable diseases. 12. Integrate Indian Systems of Medicine (ISM) in the provision of reproductive and child health services, and reaching out to households.
12. Promote vigorously the small family norm to achieve replacement levels of TFR. 14. Bring out convergence in implementation of related social sector programmes so that family welfare becomes a people centred programme.

Strategic Themes:

Following 12 strategic themes must be followed to achieve that national socio-demographic goals for 2010.

I. Decentralised Planning and Programme Implementation. The 73rd and 74th Constitutional Amendment Act, 1992

II. Convergence of Service Delivery at Village Levels.

III. Empowering Women for Improved Health and Nutrition.

IV. Child Health and Survival.

V. Meeting the Unmet Needs for Family Welfare Services.

VI. Focus on Under-Served Population Groups.

It includes:

(a) Urban slums with little or no access to potable water, sanitation facilities and health care services.

(b) Tribal Communities, Hill Area Popula tions and Displaced and Migrant Popula tions in remote and low density areas.

(c) Adolescents representing about a fifth of India's population need protection from unwanted pregnancies and sexually transmitted diseases, particularly in rural areas.

(d) Increased Participation of Men in Planned Parenthood.

VII. Diverse Health Care Providers.

VIII. Collaboration with and commitments from Non-Government Organisations and Private Sector.

IX. Mainstreaming Indian Systems of Madicine and Homeopathy.

X. Contraceptive Technology and Research on Reproductive and Child Health.

XI. Providing for the Older Population.

XII. Information, Education and Communication.

National Commission on Population:

• The Government of India constituted the National Commission on Population on May 11, 2000 with the Prime Minister as the Chairman and the Deputy Chairman of Planning Commission as its vice chairman.

The Commission has the mandate to:

• review, monitor and give direction for the implementation of the National Population Policy with the view of achieving the goals it has set;
• promote synergy between health, educa tional, environmental and developmental programmes so as to hasten population stabilisation;
• promote inter-sectoral coordination in planning and implementation of the programmes through different agencies at the Centre and in the states; and
• develop a vigorous people's programme to support this national effort.
• A Strategic Support Group consisting of secretaries of concerned sectoral ministries has been constituted as a standing advisory group to the Commission. Nine working groups were constituted to look into specific aspects of implementation of the programmes aimed at achieving the targets set in the National Population Policy.